THE GATHERING STORM
16 June 2024
Lifted from Bf
THE GATHERING STORM
The top priority of Speaker Martin Romualdez is Cha-Cha or constitutional change to switch to a parliamentary form of government with Romualdez being chosen as prime-minister to head the government and a president whose powers will be diluted to being Head of State.
The snag to the Romualdez plan is Senate President Chiz Escudero doesn’t have enough votes to approve the House resolution on Cha-Cha.
Thus the fallback to Plan B which is to eliminate Inday Sara who presently appears to be the leading candidate in survey polls for president in 2028.
It is against this backdrop that we must view the unfolding events in Davao. The dispatch of two battalions of PNP SAF battalions to serve a warrant of arrest on Pastor Quiboloy, a main supporter of Rodrigo Duterte, the rumored suspension of his son Baste as mayor of Davao, the raid by the SAF of the compound of the Kingdom of Jesus Christ without a search warrant, the crackdown on prayer rallies of Rodrigo Duterte, the cancellation of the broadcasting license of SMNI the main platform of Duterte so as to gag him, the renewal of ICC investigation of EJKs against Duterte that has now been expanded to include his daughter VP Inday Sara so they can be extradited to the ICC at The Hague in Holland to be tried, and, if found guilty, jailed there. Once Inday is found guilty by the ICC, the Congress here can move for her impeachment and removal as VP.
It is obvious who will benefit from this diabolic plan. The perpetuation of power by the Marcos-Romualdez family.
There are, however, possible snags to the plan. Firstly, the return of Donald Trump to the White House. When he last visited Manila, he told his aide on board Air Force One, he considered Rodrigo Duterte to be “the right man for the Philippines.” It is unlikely Trump will allow Duterte to be destroyed when he regains the presidency. Therefore, my guess is the diabolic plan of the current powers-that-be must be executed before the US presidential election in November 2024 is held.
Secondly, how will the people in Mindanao react to Duterte’s and Inday Sara’s persecution? How will their 15 million supporters react? Will they secede from the Republic? Rodrigo Duterte hinted at it. The MNLF has expressed its support for Digong. Will these developments lead to an uprising and war in the South? And if it does, how will our Muslim neighbours - Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei - in ASEAN react? How will China, which Bongbong has antagonized, react? Won’t China recognize a seceded and independent nation of Mindanao? Won’t China or Russia (whom Bongbong also antagonized by his warm support for Zelensky) fund and arm quietly the secessionists in Mindanao? Can the AFP handle such a situation internally while facing an external threat from China? Finally, how will a Trump administration deal with Manila once these factors converge? My hunch is the US will prefer to get rid of Bongbong as the fastest and most logical solution. It did the same with his father in order to avoid political instability in a strategically located country in SE Asia.
When my American friends ask me for my analysis of the situation in the Philippines, I just answer, “Watch what happens in 2025. In the meantime, enjoy the show.” They know my analysis in the past has turned out to be quite accurate.
Ctto Jose Alejandrino
