CHESS GAME
By Sass Roganda Sassot
6 February 2025Foreword:
From Fidel Sosa --
This impeachment is more than just an attack on VP Sara Duterte—it’s a calculated move by power-hungry politicians who fear her influence. The forces behind this are playing a dangerous game, thinking they can eliminate a formidable leader without consequences. But history has shown that when a strong leader is unjustly persecuted, it only strengthens their movement.
VP Sara’s next move will be crucial, but so will ours. We, her supporters, must not sit idly by while the system is manipulated to serve the interests of a select few. The more they push for her downfall, the more they expose their desperation and fear.
Let them overplay their hand. The people are watching. And when the time comes, we will remember who stood for justice and who played along with corruption. This fight is far from over!☺️💚
#Shukran
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𝐀 𝐂𝐎𝐌𝐏𝐋𝐄𝐗 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐈𝐓𝐈𝐂𝐀𝐋 𝐂𝐇𝐄𝐒𝐒 𝐆𝐀𝐌𝐄
VP Sara is simultaneously: greatest threat, central blocking mechanism, and potential systemic disruptor. Whatever Sara do now will affect everyone's political calculation.
Let's start with the three possible outcomes:
Sara's Possible Outcomes:
Convicted - found guilty in the impeachment trial
Acquitted - found not guilty in the impeachment trial
Resigns - steps down
Sara's strategies:
1. Fight the impeachment and hope for acquittal
2. Fight the impeachment and then resigns.
3. Or not fight just resigns.
Enemies' preference ranking:
1. Best outcome:
Conviction in trial (prevents future office, fully removes her). This is complete strategic victory for Sara's enemies because it ensure maximum political elimination of Sara forever.
2. Second-best: Resignation (removes her from current position)
So for her enemies, resignation is not the optimal outcome. They would prefer pushing for conviction because that is the complet strategic victory. Resignation still leaves open the possibility of her running again. This means her enemies would strongly prefer she goes to trial and gets convicted, rather than resigning.
However, resignation timing becomes critical:
Too early: Shows weakness
Too late: Risks conviction
Precisely timed: Strategic withdrawal
The complexity of the strategic landscape is the existence of different equilibrium points:
1. Pure Strategy Equilibrium:
- Sara Fights + Enemies Push Conviction
- Sara Resigns + Enemies Moderate Approach
2. Mixed Strategy Equilibrium:
- Probabilistic combination of fighting and resigning
- Enemies alternating between pushing conviction and taking a moderate approach
However, with Sara commanding a strong bailiwick, the strategic landscape shifts significantly:
Sara's Strengths:
- Strong local/regional political base
- Potential voter backlash against enemies if impeachment proceedings and trial have been perceived as unfair
Enemies' Calculations:
- Higher risk of political blowback
- Potential energizing of Sara's supporters
- Public perception becomes critical
Now let's have a more granular multi-actor power calculation of Sara's enemies:
1. Sara as Primary Threat
- Presidential candidate frontrunner
- Generational political talent
- Represents existential challenge to current power structures
- Has significant popular support base
2. Yellow Coalition Objectives
- Complete political elimination of Sara
- Restore their lost political relevance
- Prevent Sara's future presidential trajectory
- Rebuild their institutional power
3. Romualdez Positioning
- Wants 2028 presidential pathway clear
- Sara represents direct competitive threat
- Needs her politically neutralized
- Seeking strategic advantage
4. Current President's Calculation
- Preventing potential successor challenge
- Protecting institutional legacy
- Blocking Sara's potential presidential run
- Maintaining power configuration
The strategic Intersection of Sara's enemies:
- convergent interest in her removal
- Sara represents systemic disruption potential
- Her elimination becomes collective strategic objective
The best Sara could do: The art of political judo. Let the system reveal its own contradictions. Conserve energy. Let the enemies do all the hard work for it is them that has limited strategic pathways.
